The 2020 NFL Draft is quickly approaching, and NFL draft analysts and fans alike have similar questions about the scenarios that might play out in the first round. There is a lot of intrigue about where the top quarterbacks will land and much more. Below, Ryan Wilson, Chris Trapasso and I share our thoughts on some of the most perplexing questions that the NFL has to offer.
What percent chance does Cincinnati trade out of the No. 1 overall selection?
Wilson: “0%. It ain’t happening. The Dolphins could offer up every pick in the 2020 AND 2021 draft and Bengals owner Mike Brown is taking Joe Burrow.”
Trapasso: “5%. Given the amount of time Cincinnati has needed a quarterback and a way to move from Andy Dalton to Joe Burrow cleanly, the sensible thing for the Bengals to do is simply pick the reigning Heisman winner. For as much as I’m an advocate for trading down — particularly with rebuilding clubs — the quarterback position is too valuable, and Burrow is that good.”
Edwards: “1%. It is difficult to say the odds are completely zero because Cincinnati is a bit of a wild card. Everyone believed that they should have been sellers at the trade deadline last year too but they weren’t. Miami could theoretically dangle an enticing carrot in front of their faces.”
What would it cost for Miami to move up to No. 1 overall?
Wilson: “The draft value chart would say the Dolphins would have to part with picks No. 5, 18, 26 and 39 but a) I still don’t think the Bengals would do it and b) the Dolphins would lose out on the chance to restock the roster with three high-round picks to take a quarterback when there are other QBs who are also first-round talents.”
Trapasso: “At least two of their three first-round picks in 2020, a second-rounder and a first-round pick along with another Day 2 pick in 2021. So, yeah, a lot. That would be reasonable from afar. But the Bengals would likely want more than this.”
Edwards: “It would probably cost a king’s ransom for Miami to trade up. Three first-round picks is likely the starting price to get Cincinnati’s attention but it would likely cost more. Parting with that much compensation essential to roster growth is a bold rebuilding strategy.”
Beyond the Bengals, Dolphins and Chargers, who is the sleeper team most likely to take a first-round QB?
Wilson: “The Patriots need a quarterback in a post-Tom Brady world, and there’s no guarantee Drew Brees plays beyond the 2020 season in New Orleans. And the Jaguars could grab a QB at No. 20, before either team goes on the clock.”
Trapasso: “Raiders. Jon Gruden wants his guy by now, right? Seems like he would. They have two first-round picks, which helps if they want to move up, but they should be able to sit at No. 12 overall and pick Jordan Love if he’s the one. Even with Marcus Mariota in the mix, it seems like now is the time the Raiders would look more long-term at the quarterback spot.”
Edwards: “With two first round picks, Jacksonville stands out as a team that might have some interest in a quarterback. When Nick Foles returned from injury, they benched Gardner Minshew in favor of the veteran. If they were sold on the rookie, they would not have pulled him from the starting lineup. The trade of Foles does not mean that they are sold on Minshew. It simply means that they are not sold on Foles and the contract divvied out.”
What will be the first non-quarterback trade?
Wilson: “The Bucs trade up to grab an offensive tackle to bolster the O-line and protect Tom Brady. Jedrick Wills, Tristan Wirfs and Andrew Thomas are possible targets.”
Trapasso: “A team moving up for an offensive tackle. The “Big 5″ in this class — Tristan Wirfs, Andrew Thomas, Mekhi Becton, Jedrick Wills and Josh Jones — are a clear step ahead of the rest of the prospects at their position, and there are a plethora of teams in need of an instant starter at tackle.”
Edwards: “If Jacksonville is not in the market for a quarterback, I could see them moving up for one of those defensive players that slides thanks in part to runs on offensive tackles and quarterbacks early in the first round. They are loaded with draft capital to make it happen.”
How many trades will occur in the first round?
Wilson: “We’ll go with four: The Dolphins and Jaguars both trade up for a QB; the Bucs and Browns move up up for an offensive lineman.”
Trapasso: “We had five draft-night trades last year, and I think we’ll get right under that many this year. At least one for a quarterback — like Tua Tagovailoa — one for an offensive tackle, probably a receiver or two in there, and then a wild card. So four this year.”
Edwards: “Five. Over the last three years, an average of 15.3 first round picks have annually changed hands. To this point, there have been just six. We will assume that teams involved in first round trades are largely swapping picks.”